Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, November 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, November 19

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, November 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, November 16	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, November 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, November 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, November 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.

Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.

In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.

..Broyles.. 11/12/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, November 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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