Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, November 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, November 21

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, November 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, November 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, November 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, November 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, November 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.

Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.

..Lyons.. 11/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, November 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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