Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, June 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120833 SPC AC 120833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

During the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, an upper ridge is forecast to remain over the Plains, with modest southwest flow aloft over the West. Models suggest that around Tuesday/D6, the upper ridge will break down over the central/northern Plains, although the amplitude and track of the wave is in question. Ample low-level moisture will be in place from the Plains to the East Coast, with mid to upper 60s F as far north as southern parts of the Great Lakes.

As a result of this large area of moisture and instability, widely scattered thunderstorms will be common each day. The northern Plains appears to have the greatest change of organized severe storms includes MCS/s, but predictability is clearly low at this time with the uncertain wave. However, it appears that the Tuesday/D6 to Wednesday/D7 time frame may yield a corridor of organized damaging wind potential over parts of the northern and central plains to Midwest, and these trends will continue to be monitored.

..Jewell.. 06/12/2025

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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