Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, June 7	15%
Day 5	Monday, June 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, June 9	15%
Day 7	Wednesday, June 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, June 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Sunday

A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.

The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.

### Day5/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.

### Day6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.

### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 6: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 7: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 9: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, June 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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